How did they do? Grading mock drafts from four of the top experts

Love them or hate them, mock drafts are the lifeblood of the NFL offseason, bridging the gap from the Super Bowl to draft night.

An exercise based (mostly) in speculation — though many reputable draft analysts do watch film and do their best to match players and teams based on areas of need and conversations with scouts and team executives — mock drafting is simply guesswork at its finest.

But how credible are the so-called “experts?” Here is a look at how four of the top draft analysts fared in their first-round predictions:

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN

Number of picks correct: 3

- Carolina, Bryce Young

- Houston, Will Anderson

- Jacksonville, Anton Harrison

Nobody is as popular in the month between free agency and the NFL Draft as the OG of mock drafts, Kiper Jr. Nobody has been doing it at a higher level for longer than he has. And while nobody is questioning Kiper Jr.’s ability to scout and evaluate players, in fact he’s fared quite well at predicting the top 100 players of each year’s draft class, he has struggled recently with identifying the correct player/organizational fit.

Arguably nobody puts more though and research into their mock drafts than Kiper Jr., but he’s had a lot more misses than hits over the last few years. He’ll likely be considered the standard for mock drafting until he retires, but there are other analysts who have proven to be more accurate and reliable (see below). GRADE: C

Tod McShay, ESPN

Number of picks correct: 7

- Carolina, Bryce Young

- Houston, Will Anderson

- Atlanta, Bijan Robinson

- Philadelphia, Nolan Smith

- Arizona, Paris Johnson Jr.

- Washington, Emmanuel Forbes

- Minnesota, Jordan Addison

McShay is known just as much for getting under Kiper Jr.’s skin in the leadup to the NFL Draft as he is for his mock draft predictions. McShay brings a fresh voice and perspective to ESPN’s draft coverage, and he does a great job of filling in the gaps with player evaluations and film breakdowns during ESPN’s draft broadcast. 

His picks have been right on par with Kiper Jr. — sometimes better, in fact — and his mock draft success rate has held solid over the years. McShay has ascended as one of the more trusted draft analysts and rightfully so. 

GRADE: B+

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network

Number of picks correct: 8

- Carolina, Bryce Young

- Houston, CJ Stroud

- Houston, Will Anderson

- Atlanta, Bijan Robinson

- Philly, Nolan Smith

- Arizona, Paris Johnson Jr.

- Washington, Emmanuel Forbes

- Minnesota, Jordan Addison

The feather in Jeremiah’s cap from the weekend — he was the only draft expert to correctly predict the Houston Texans would trade up to No. 3 and close the first round with both C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. He also had more correct picks than most of his cohorts as well.

Although he has a leg up over other most draft analysts due to the seven years he spent as a scout for the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, Jeremiah is emerging as one of the top mock drafters/draft experts in the industry. His film analysis and player rankings are usually pretty spot on. GRADE: A

Dane Brugler, The Athletic

Number of picks correct: 5

- Carolina, Bryce Young

- Houston, Will Anderson

- Atlanta, Bijan Robinson

- Washington, Emmanuel Forbes

- Minnesota, Jordan Addison

While The Athletic’s draft scouting is likely more analytically-based than other draft services like ESPN, NFL Network and Bleacher Report, Brugler has become a go-to source during draft season for his draft guide “The Beast” — a 300-plus page tool that does a positional breakdown of the top prospects for each draft class.

Brugler may not be as accurate as McShay or Jeremiah, but he’s definitely in the next tier of analysts that include NFL.com’s Charles Davis and Lance Zierlein and Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema. He seemingly gets a handful of picks correct every year. GRADE: B-